Hello again! Welcome to Edition 3! We had a doubling of views between Editions 1 and 2, hopefully it will keep going. Joining us are a few more subscribers which is very much appreciated, welcome noobs! Please share the newsletter, more subs would be fab.
Firstly a bit of housekeeping, I had a few questions along the lines of “it would be better if we could link to the Twitter threads”, so a reminder ALL IMAGES LINK TO TWITTER. Thanks!
Paid subscribers, I welcome your suggestions of things I posted on Twitter which would be fun to explore. Eventually I hope this weekly will become fully user-requested.
This week:
Part 1: The Grumpy Optimist (Free)
Part 2: What Everyone Gets Wrong About Twitter (Paid)
Part 1: The Grumpy Optimist
A couple of editions are now out the door and we’ve now reach the stage where a little character development is probably in order. In my Twitter bio I refer to myself as a Grumpy Optimist. I can’t remember exactly when I adopted this description of myself, but I seem to recall it emerged during a Twitter DM with someone. I think it’s a reasonably self explanatory kind of term, but given you’ve taken the time to subscribe to this newsletter, and (remarkably) some of you are event paying to read it, I thought I’d take the time to explain the term.
The Optimist Bit
First and foremost, as the second part of the term may suggest, I’m an optimist. I believe that right now is an incredible time to be a human being, and that despite problems facing us, humans have never been more capable of resolving them. I say I believe that, but better still, I can prove that. On any number of different measures, in aggregate, life is getting remarkably better. Whether it’s life expectancy, or GDP per Capita, or the fact developed economies have reduced their CO2 emissions as they’ve become more developed, the evidence is all there in the data. Here’s just another from this week - capitalism leads to fewer hours worked:
Optimism Takes Effort
The tweet above highlights the tension though. The data being quote tweeted is responding to a claim made in an opinion piece (shocked) that is the opposite, based mainly on a vibe. Herein lies the problem, actually a few nested problems:
Problem #1: The best way to measure improvements in the human condition is via aggregated data, but this is often counterintuitive and probably doesn’t align with anecdotal data or personal experience.
Problem #2: Our major sense-making institution for new information - the news media - is specifically designed to elevate anecdote. Reporters are trained that the basis of a story is a couple of sources. This method may be useful in sourcing a scoop on a hot piece of news, and in certain cases it’s the only way to highlight forms of injustice. But I’m afraid that’s still merely anecdote when it comes to situations where aggregated data matters. Even if you’ve managed to pull a dozen sources, that still doesn’t create a representative sample, and you’re likely to fall prey to Sampling Bias as we see so frequently in articles where, for example, employees at a tech company take an action that aligns with the sympathies of the reporter.
Problem #3: Human brains are hardwired to fixate on anecdote. It’s human instinct to care most about our immediate surroundings, and aggregated data can seem abstract and less viable. So news based on anecdote and “vibes” will spread more readily because it may “feel” right even when it’s utterly wrong.
Pessimism is a Pose
Beyond the sorts of data related phenomena described above, the other real problem is that being an optimist takes hard work and carries real risk of losing face. It’s easy to tear down an optimist when things go wrong. Pessimism on the other hand is easy - if you are predisposed to seek bad news, you’ll easily find it because humans are also hardwired to focus on negatives. And very rarely do pessimists admit their error.
Certain people are more predisposed to be pessimistic and pessimism is often an intellectual pose - for some reason I don’t really understand, society attributes intelligence to pessimists. A remarkable amount of (often bad) science-fiction writing plays to this, as is rather sweetly captured in this comic:
Finally, because pessimism is a pose, and because pessimists are (incorrectly) perceived as more intelligent, Twitter is basically a platform for stupid pessimists chasing - and often gaining - clout despite being obviously wrong. This week we saw a classic case in point (at time of writing it’s now 24k Likes):
For me this is a tragedy, that despite vast amounts of evidence to the contrary - in this case NASA was delighted with the SpaceX test - idiots posting stupidity are able to gain clout from other idiots via lies.
The Grumpy Bit
I think at this point I don’t need to explain the “grumpy” bit any further do I?
Reasons to be Cheerful
So I’ll just leave you with this wonderful moment of human achievement that happens at around the time Edition 2 dropped last week. What makes it for me is not just the visceral sight of this gigantic machine taking flight, but the rapture of the people who helped make it possible:
So thank you to the people at SpaceX. But thank you also to all the hopeful, hardworking people around the world who do things - small and large - every single day, to make their communities and the world a better place. A Grump Optimist salutes you.